If you needed another reminder of how poorly managed Chelsea have been at times in recent years you should google the words “Antonio Rudiger” and “contract”.
You can go all the way back to April 2020 to find stories on Sky Sports of the Blues attempting to negotiate a long-term deal with the German defender. Over two years later and it’s all been for nothing, as Rudiger has completed a move to Real Madrid.
Of course, back then, Rudiger was a rotation option halfway through Frank Lampard’s first season at Chelsea, as he would end the 19/20 Premier League season 12th in the squad for minutes.
Today, he sits top of the squad for minutes played in the league four outfielders. He has three goals, just one shy of Timo Werner and Hakim Ziyech, and in the 54 games he has played for Chelsea this season he has conceded only 40 goals.
From a wider outlook, the 29-year-old looks like one of the most uniquely gifted defenders in world football, able to help teams unlock a deep block with driving runs from deep. His speed and power makes him a nightmare to attack against and he feels like a leader both on and off the pitch.
Replacing that would be an arduous task at the best of times, let alone when your club sails rudderless still without an owner even if Todd Boehly moves closer to taking charge.
So to help Chelsea out we created a shortlist of defenders who could step in to replace Rudiger, ranging from budget options to blowing the bank on a new replacement.
The Theory
Our recommended signings cannot be one based solely on numbers, as Rudiger’s quality goes further than just his progressive carries p90. However, to identify similar players, the former Roma defender needs to be quantified through a statistical lens.
We collected data for his key exploits, such as progressive passes (passes that move the ball 10 yards closer to goal) and his defensive numbers. Crucially, they were adjusted for possession, so they can be better compared to those across Europe.
With that on the table, we can find players who rank high among the top five leagues for these stats, and whittle it down to a shortlist.
With Mattias Ginter off to Freiburg he was eliminated, whilst Kalidou Koulibaly, Duje Caleta Car, Jules Kounde ( who is already expected to complete a move to Chelsea ) Jean Clair Todibo were too far off the German in the numbers compared to make a realistic comparison.
That left a shortlist to be explored of Manuel Akanji, Adam Webster, Josko Gvardiol, Mohamed Salisu, and Pau Torres.
Manuel Akanji
Despite some players here playing at Southampton and Nice, perhaps no one has had their reputation smeared by the ability of their side as much as Manuel Akanji.
The 26-year-old has been with Dortmund since 2018 and in that time their defence has bounced from inconsistent to calamitous, especially this season under Marco Rose where they’ve conceded 1.54 goals-per-game in the Bundesliga.
Still, the former Basel defender has time on his side to show that he’s not been the reason behind Dortmund’s recent failures.
His passing, for example, is exemplary. It’s come on leaps and bounds in recent years and Akanji is able to play long switches or tight passes through the lines, standing second in the squad in fact for passes into the final third.
Defensively he has a habit of making strong blocks and clearances, while the Swiss boasts good recovery speed. He’s perhaps not as agile as Rudiger, but Akanji is definitely as strong as the German.
From August 2019 to around December 2020, he also played fairly regularly on the left side of a three at the back formation. With Nico Schlotterbeck and Nicolas Sule arriving at Dortmund this summer, Chelsea could drive a deal for a player who could be a suitable replacement for Rudiger.
Adam Webster
At 27-years-old Adam Webster is the oldest player on our shortlist, but for a centre back he would still be considered as someone yet to reach his prime years.
The Brighton defender has only made 16 starts this season, as he has suffered two injuries that have kept him out for a combined 74 days this season. However in the 14 league games where he’s played over 45 minutes, Brighton have conceded just 15 goals.
Webster usually plays on the right side of Graham Potter’s back three, but by his FBREF marker of touches with either foot, he takes the exact same amount of touches with his right as Rudiger does (77%), so a fit on the left could possibly work.
Despite playing for a mid-table club, he’s been gaining plaudits recently. Jamie Carragher recently said: “Adam Webster’s passing out from the back, with both feet is better than any other English central defender.”
There’s talk too that he could be in Gareth Southgate’s plans for the Qatar World Cup, which makes the signing of Webster feel more glamorous for Chelsea. The hard line is that the Englishman is a Prem-proven defender who is used to playing in a back three and having the ball at his feet.
He’s never going to be as incredible as Rudiger has been in a Chelsea shirt, but out of all the names on this list, Adam Webster may just be the safest and most reliable option.
Josko Gvardiol
The youngest defender listed, Josko Gvardiol only arrived at RB Leipzig from Croatian giants Dinamo Zagreb last summer after a pre-agreed deal was finalised in January 2021.
Gvardiol played as a left back for Dinamo and for his country at Euro 2020, which has given him skills that are plain to see when watching the 20-year-old on the left side of Domenico Tedesco’s 3-4-3.
Despite standing at over 6ft, Gvardiol has an ability to glide past pressure in a manner that’s even less awkward than how Rudiger is able to do so.
His speed and power not only helps him bomb forward like the Chelsea defender but also make recoveries that keep Leipzig defensively sound when he’s on the pitch. He’s conceded just 27 goals in 28 Bundesliga starts, and the Croat also boasts the best tackle success rate in the Leipzig squad.
The red flag at this point in his career would be his limited experience. Defenders in the Bundesliga like Maxence Lacroix have exploded in their first season before falling back down to reality.
Of course, the biggest barrier infront of his path to Chelsea would be his price and possible unwillingness to even leave Germany. Gvardiol is contracted until 2026 and has no release clause.
Still, every solution is worth pursuing. Should the Blues find a way to sign Gvardiol, they could potentially have a worthy heir to Rudiger who could bring even more to the table.
Mohammed Salisu
Now in his second Premier League season, Mohammed Salisu is beginning to establish himself as one of the league’s top up-and-coming defenders.
The Ghanian moved from Real Valladolid in late 2020 and his side conceded an extra 14 goals in the season after he left, succumbing to a relegation to the Segunda Division ahead of the 21/22 season.
In the south of England though Salisu has taken a little longer to become as important to the Saints as he did to Pucela, this season making over 30 league appearances compared to just 13 last season.
He’s built up a reputation for being an aggressive defender in the league who tries to stop players receiving passes, which is a trait that fits well into Chelsea’s aim to press high. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl, the errors in his style are slowly being bedded out too.
Having just turned 23-years-old in April the Southampton defender has plenty of time to improve even further defensively, but he has already made headlines on that front after a MOTM display against Manchester City earlier this season.
With his passing also improving from the days in Spain where he prioritised safety more than anything, Salisu could be a good option to replace Rudiger. He would be risky, as he’s not the finished product, but he represents an option for Chelsea.
Pau Torres
Pau Torres has been at Villarreal since he was just six years old and now two decades later the 25-year-old is an established Spanish international who has led a defence that recently reached the Champions League semi-finals.
The reason behind his call up under Luis Enrique is obvious, as the former Barcelona coach is well known for his preference for players who are proficient in possession (something that has led to De Gea being dropped).
Torres is possibly too comfortable in possession. He is dripping with confidence on the ball and has no fear in dummying oncoming pressure in order to make space for himself, and he will need to adapt to the speed of the Premier League quickly to avoid getting embarrassed in possession.
Still, Torres has been on Chelsea’s radar since last year and being left-footed would make him a solid replacement for Rudiger. The Spaniard is also 6ft 3 and is deceivingly quick, although could improve on his 60% aerial win rate.
Defensively he may go under the radar as the defender is rarely seen going to ground or lunging into challenges, but instead he’s smart in how he positions himself and cleanly tackles opposition. There have been questions raised in big games, where he has looked less comfortable.
Most attractively, Torres has a £42m release clause in his contract. In a summer where multiple reinforcements are needed, Chelsea have an option here who is ready to step up to a regular Champions League side who comes at a relatively low fee.
