Injuries to Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile have exacerbated Chelsea’s desire to pursue another centre back in the transfer market, though not in the way anyone really thought they would.

It was expected that Chelsea would pursue a centre back of the profile they actually needed, as opposed to buying another central centre back (CCB) – of which we have three already at the club (Colwill, Tosin and Disasi). 

Wesley Fofana is the only centre back truly capable of playing as an aggressive right centre back (RCB), with Tosin and Disasi being incapable of effectively playing that role. 

With the promotion and rollout of Cobham graduate Josh Acheampong going somewhat well so far, you could understand the hierarchy being weary to not rush into any deal that didn’t make much sense.

That being said, Chelsea have been considering a move for Cobham graduate and Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi.

In this article, there will be less of a data focus compared to normal as I will address the consistent inconsistencies in logic displayed by the directors in building a squad. 

Marc Guehi as a player: Is he any good?

Marc Guehi is a good player. He has good positional awareness and has brilliant fundamentals. 

He is a Cobham graduate and was sold to Crystal Palace in July 2021 for £18m after two loans with Swansea City. He’s also only 24 years old so he definitely has room to grow and improve even more. 

Guehi is good on the ball, very good in fact. He’s actually very composed and a great leader. He’s a good passer and is very capable in the first phase of build up (very press resistant). 

My concerns arise in terms of his physique. At only 182cm, he’s pretty short for a centre back in this day and age.

In terms of winning duels, there isn’t a massive emphasis on this at the middle of a 3-base but in terms of winning headers, I find it astonishing we could be looking at adding another defender who doesn’t really win headers.

Ok, he isn’t bad at winning aerial duels, but he isn’t exactly dominant at it. He isn’t massively fast either, nor does he have long limbs. 

Thus, his strengths mainly lie with what he does when on the ball. Everything else he is at a good level but doesn’t stand out in the elite category.

In addition to his on the ball strengths, he is an exceptional leader for his age. Captaining Crystal Palace isn’t the most ‘prestigious’ role, with all due respect, but he’s capped for England and commands his backline really well.

In further defence of Marc Guehi, he can also play right centre back and left centre back in a back four to a decent level. However, much like Disasi in a three-base, his weaknesses begin to show. 

Guehi is a solid, 7/10 defender and will perform to that rating/level almost every week. He’s a good leader, solid on the ball and very composed.

He is press resistant and can win duels. I believe he can also play at right centre back, whilst his main position is left centre back (versatile) but I don’t feel he can play them to the level someone like Fofana can.

He isn’t tall, and he doesn’t have top recovery pace. He doesn’t have the frame to play aggressor to a top level, regardless of his technical proficiency. 

Why the squad building is beginning to make even less sense than normal

These are two massive problems if you wanted to play Guehi in the role Fofana plays. Naturally speaking, regardless of whether they are capable of playing in the ‘aggressor’ role like Fofana, you want to have a defender at right centre back that is:

• Fast
• Strong in the duel
• Can jump and win headers
• Long-legged
• Mobile
• Fast in the head (solves problems quickly)

Marc Guehi probably only ticks two of these and maybe three at a stretch. Ok, he can win duels. He’s clearly intelligent and is also somewhat okay in the air. But the rest? No chance.

And I don’t mean this in an offensive way to Marc Guehi. If we wanted a central centre back, or someone of his profile, then I would be all in favour of buying him.

This is mainly why the deal is irking me and it just doesn’t make sense. 

I will look at the broader implications for a squad in a minute, but for now let’s look only at the centre back situation.

We currently employ all these players in the following positions, and I will rate each’s ability to play in said position with 3 emojis – ✅(proficient), ⁉️(can play there but not optimal), ❌(please don’t). 

LCB:

• Badiashile ✅
• Colwill ⁉️
• Cucurella ⁉️
• Veiga ✅
• Tosin ❌
• Fofana ❌
• Gusto ⁉️
• James ✅
• Disasi ❌
• Chilwell ✅
• Anselmino ✅
• Acheampong ⁉️

CCB: 

• Badiashile ✅
• Colwill ✅
• Cucurella ❌
• Veiga ⁉️
• Tosin ✅
• Fofana ✅
• Gusto ❌
• James ⁉️
• Disasi ✅
• Chilwell ❌
• Anselmino ✅
• Acheampong ✅

RCB:

• Badiashile ⁉️
• Colwill ❌
• Cucurella ❌
• Veiga ❌
• Tosin ✅
• Fofana ✅
• Gusto ⁉️
• James ✅
• Disasi ✅
• Chilwell ❌
• Anselmino ✅
• Acheampong ✅

Ok so the first question is probably to ask why on earth we have so many defenders. The answer to that is unclear; I really don’t know. 

It’s also important to clarify that just because there is a ✅there, doesn’t mean they’re actually good there. For example, Colwill can obviously play LCB – it just isn’t his best position. 

Now ideally, in a squad that is designed to play a three-base, you want six defenders. Three starters that are ‘Chelsea’ level and three players that are squad players and good enough to come in and do a job but won’t expect tons of game time.

Currently, we have:

• Fofana, Chelsea level
• Colwill, Chelsea level
• Tosin, Squad level
• Badiashile, Chelsea/Squad level
• Disasi, Squad level
• Anselmino, Squad level

These are the centre backs, all in bold in the lists above. 

Now, I’m going to do the list again and write the positions they can play in but also in order of proficiency:

• Fofana, RCB
• Colwill, CCB, LCB
• Tosin, CCB, RCB
• Badiashile, LCB, CCB, RCB(4)
• Disasi, CCB, RCB(4)
• Anselmino, LCB, RCB (both in 4) EQUAL

Ok, not bad. Now look again, and you will see that we only have one natural right centre back, with three players capable of playing central centre back and one natural left centre back.

Aaron Anselmino wasn’t even in the squad a week ago, so before this we had to resort to playing all sorts of players at left centre back or have Colwill play there where he isn’t as proficient. 

To illustrate the issues even better, I’m now going to make another list. This time, stating whether a player has the characteristics to be able to play the modern aggressor role.

So, for simplicity, are they fast/mobile, intelligent, positionally aware and capable in the tair, good and composed on the ball and win a good amount of duels.

I will rate each’s ability again with 3 emojis – ✅(has them), ⁉️(has them but also doesn’t), ❌(no chance). 

• Fofana ✅
• Colwill ⁉️
• Tosin ⁉️
• Badiashile ⁉️
• Disasi ❌
• Anselmino ⁉️

I’ll add in Acheampong with a ✅ but unfortunately, he is only 18 and we simply cannot expect an 18 year old to hold down that role for half a season. It’s wrong, dangerous and harmful. So, Acheampong gets a ⁉️.

I’m not saying we should have four players with a ✅ but ideally a top team should have at least two players. If we jump with only one defender, that’s fine.

Sometimes you can jump with two; we did this with Badiashile for a couple games only for him to also get injured with Fofana.

So currently, we have a total of zero players with a ✅ to play that modern aggressor role which would aid us in sustaining pressure, controlling games and pressing effectively. 

Let’s add in Guehi to the list. 

• Fofana ✅
• Colwill ⁉️
• Tosin ⁉️
• Badiashile ⁉️
• Disasi ❌
• Anselmino ⁉️
• Guehi ⁉️

Let’s add in Chalobah to the list.

• Fofana ✅
• Colwill ⁉️
• Tosin ⁉️
• Badiashile ⁉️
• Disasi ❌
• Anselmino ⁉️
• Guehi ⁉️
• Chalobah ✅

Great, we’re also considering adding Chalobah to the team, does that solve our problems? No. 

Just because he can do it, doesn’t mean he’s great at it. He’s better than the rest of them there –  long limbed, fast, wins duels, but he isn’t a needle mover.

He doesn’t raise our ceiling, and he barely increases the floor. It is a cheap, if not free (unless we’re talking about the costs of our embarrassment), way of getting cover in (can also play left centre back) during our injury woes. 

But it does mean we still need to pursue a more long term option. It also means we can’t force him out again in the summer as that would be catastrophically nasty. 

Now for the final section…..

The data of Chelsea’s defenders (with a focus on Marc Guehi) and what we should do with all of them

It is time for the data. 

(As Axel Disasi is expected to leave this January, I will not be extensively covering him).

Per Squawka’s comparison matrix, here is how our defenders pair up.

Fofana, obviously, contests the most duels given his role. 

It’s important to note here that only he is the only player here with pretty good aerial duel numbers. Guehi’s is also above average, especially his higher volume of aerial duels (though this is also down to the fact that Palace defend more than Chelsea do).

That’s also why I’m weary of his defensive numbers. Without context, his numbers show he could play as an aggressor.

With context, it’s likely that he engages in more duels simply because he defends more. 

Above is the data for all six Centre Backs. So as you can see the volume of defending Guehi has had ot face is significantly higher than the other five chelsea Centre Backs. 

In a more direct comparison, below is the radar chart of Fofana vs Guehi.

As you can see… they’re good at… the opposite things…

If there was a radar chart that summed up this article, it would be this. Where Fofana excels, Guehi is average. Where Guehi excels, Fofana is average.

So tell me, Why on earth would you then be buying Guehi to cover for Fofana?

Guehi is more of a Disasi replacement than anything, and he isn’t even as good in the air. 

I simply haven’t watched enough of Guehi to draw any definitive conclusions but I wouldn’t assume Guehi would be a monumental upgrade on Disasi, Badiashile etc in those wide centre back positions. 

To better show what I meant about a higher volume of things Guehi has to do, this illustrates it best:

(In the defensive actions bit). 

Finally, in terms of ball recoveries, Guehi matches up to our better wide defenders.

So in that sense, good, but also you have to remember the increased volume that he would have to deal with at Crystal Palace. 

Also, if we are going for a centre back at Crystal Palace that doesn’t cost £50M + and in fact costs nothing, I would strongly recommend you know who. 

One thing about both potential transfers however is that neither of them elevate our aerial prowess, something that’s already fifth worst in the league.

What’s even worse about that stat is that of all the fit defenders as of now (09/01/2025), Tosin has the highest aerial win rate at 57.7%. 

Guehi averages 56.4% career wide, and Chalobah 50.8%. Analysis showed me that top teams generally have centre backs that average at least 60%. 

Neither Guehi or Chalobah truly elevate the level of physicality either – Chalobah does slightly but again he isn’t a monumental upgrade.

Given the squad building so far and composition that means we have maybe 1/2 players in the entire squad that are physically adept, can we really continue to acquire more centre backs that don’t elevate the physical floor?

I don’t think so. It’s also something I didn’t massively touch on in the above section about our squad building but it’s an issue I’ve spoken about extensively elsewhere. 

My final thoughts on the potential Guehi signing and the squad building

Who wins duels for us? Who wins headers? Who wins second balls? Who has great box movement (in both boxes)? Who tracks runners well in deep?

There isn’t really an answer to any of these, and if we do have one, we have one answer.

So, it should be no surprise that they end up getting injured having to do 90% of the heavy lifting when they do play.

We had a duel and second ball winner in Conor Gallagher last season but now he is sold and out of this conversation.

We didn’t buy a number six that does that + crashes the box well + tracks deep runners + covers their own box well.

We have one that can get to a good level for all of these, but he’s on loan.

Thus, we don’t have a box dominant striker, something that we need to address this month after failing to do so in the summer transfer window. 

Identifying talent and good players is one part of the job, but putting it all together in the right way is something that we have struggled with.

Guehi is a solid player in his own right but I cannot see how he fits into Maresca’s system at right centre back because the way he used Fofana, he can’t use Guehi, they excel at different things.

On Chalobah, he just isn’t that upgrade that would elevate us or really raise the floor of our performances. If our intention is to have him stay at the club after the summer and play second fiddle to Fofana at right centre back, then fine – I’m for the move.

If it’s anything other than that, I’m not so sure. Just to clarify again on Chalobah, he is a good player. He isn’t the perfect fit for right centre back and he isn’t a direct replacement for Fofana, but he is closer to Fofana profile wise than Guehi or anyone else currently at the club.

He’s almost similar to Badiashile in a way, in that he can definitely do it, just with some flaws. 

The benefit with Chalobah however is that he’d be free, ignoring the embarrassment that would follow the move. 

He isn’t a monumentally better player than Guehi and Guehi isn’t a monumentally better player than him, do you see what I mean?

I also would say neither are levels on the defenders we currently have. If we got Guehi, I still think we’d need to go out in the market to get someone that is actually monumentally better than the players we actually have now.

You can’t part with around £50m or even more with this being the case.

So… should we spend £50M+ to sign Marc Guehi?

Well, I think not because as I have outlined in this article, you can’t outlay so much money for a player that does not excel in the areas that Wesley Fofana does.

He has experience, leadership and loves the club but this is a replacement for Fofana at least for the next few months, and maybe the next few years.

There are too many question marks to Guehi’s overall game still and how it would translate to a bigger side. And as we have said, the biggest issue is the fit with the other centre backs.

To end off the article and take it away from my analysis and perhaps my own mind on the player, Reuben Pinder from The Athletic shares his thoughts exclusively with LondonsFirst :

“From Chelsea’s point of view, this really depends on how highly they rate the likes of Tosin Adarabioyo and Josh Acheampong, with the latter impressing in their recent draw against Crystal Palace.

Tosin’s lack of game time suggest he is more squad filler than a future starter, and Axel Disasi has not lived up to the hype in a Chelsea shirt. All of which leads me to see why Chelsea would like to sign a quality right-sided centre-back to play alongside Levi Colwill, with Wesley Fofana’s fitness concerns.

Trying to remove my bias as a Palace fan, I would say sanctioning £50m+ for March Guehi would be a good move, even if the process of re-signing an academy product for a £30m net loss is somewhat embarrassing.

He would become Chelsea’s best centre-back instantly, and fits the age profile they want, as well as bringing excellent leadership qualities.

He’s comfortable using both feet, great in the air given his relative lack of height, athletic, calm under pressure and a confident and incisive passer – everything you want in a modern centre-back.

Tactically, his adaptability to playing on either side of the defence would also be a huge asset to Chelsea.

But is he really what they need right now, given their lack of PSR headroom? Maybe, rather than spending a large sum to bring back a former academy product, it would be wiser for the club to focus on making Acheampong a success”

An interesting conclusion to a widely negative article on why Chelsea should not be signing Guehi anytime soon, especially for the quoted price.

As with everything in Football, it is a game of opinions, I am confident in my analysis but only time will tell if the club do sign Guehi.

The good thing is, this is in writing forever and we can come back to this article in a year or so’s time if he does end up signing this window.