Samu Omodorion is indeed yet another unproven signing and, for a fairly high price of £34.5M is a player that will almost certainly come under intense scrutiny from the Chelsea fanbase.
As we enter the final window in the sporting director’s ‘four-window strategy’, pressure will inevitably mount on all signings we make and subsequently the directors themselves.
After spending a reasonable amount of time skimming through his data and watching him play, I have concluded that actually, we can’t really come to a definitive conclusion yet.
The issue is, Omodorion is massively and I mean MASSIVELY unrefined.
I have compared his numbers to Victor Osimhen, Armando Broja and Nicolas Jackson; they’re pretty unremarkable.
His shot accuracy isn’t great but it isn’t poor, his passing is mediocre, and he is decent in the air but that’s really about it.
All the strikers I have compared Omodorion so far to have one thing in common. They accumulate a reasonable amount of Non-Penalty xG per game.
This means they get into positions that yield reasonably good chances to score from. Broja is the worst at this in this list but Omodorion is up there with Jackson and Osimhen.
All three accumulate at least 0.5 np-xG per game, meaning they (in theory) should score 1 goal every 2 games.
This would be a return of 19 goals in 38 games. All three strikers underperformed this last season. The promising interpretation of these numbers is that strikers usually end up exceeding their xG or at least scoring the amount they’d be expected to.
The not-so-promising interpretation of these numbers is that sometimes strikers just consistently underperform and miss tons of chances – Timo Werner.
It is important to note that Osimhen and Jackson accumulated reasonable amounts of np-xG per 90 in teams that created a reasonable amount of chances.
Omodorion accumulated this at Deportivo Alaves who were one of the lowest scoring sides in La Liga.
It’s impossible to truly state ‘This player would’ve got more chances in this team’ or ‘This player only got more chances than this player because he plays for a better team’ but from watching Omodorion he does appear to have reasonably good fundamentals.
His movement is good and he’s strong, aggressive, engages well in duels, respectable in the air, and does seem to have decent box movement.
Omorodion doesn’t appear anything special on the eye and at times he does look very clunky but this is normal for a young, unrefined player of his build.
Omodorion is 6’3 and remotely mobile for someone of his height. He uses his strength and robustness well and makes life very difficult for defenders, these are all good things.
Football is a very very complex, complicated and fascinatingly simple sport. That’s why people love it. And it is for this reason that there’s absolutely no guarantee he will be anything like we’ve seen so far, but there’s also no guarantee he doesn’t become a lot better surrounded by better players and likely a better coach.
He does have the fundamentals in place to potentially become a really good player and that is yet again why Clearlake have invested.
The issue I personally have is that yes, his numbers are promising and his profile is promising but that’s simply because they are, as of now, unremarkable.
There is absolutely no guarantee his numbers translate into tangible results and there is no guarantee he develops into the player he can develop into.
This then begs the question, is it wise to gamble £34.5M on a young unrefined player hoping they eventually become good?
It screams ‘Let’s risk it all and buy him now cheap on the 50% chance he becomes a 100 million pound superstar striker’.
Chelsea is a club notorious for having fans with little patience and a toxic atmosphere when things are going wrong and well, if this goes wrong then I do start to fear for the project.
That being said, Omodorion is still a young player and yes there is potential in there. Time and patience will tell, though there is very little of both left within the fanbase.
