The 20-year-old Colombian forward seems to be the main name being linked with a move to Chelsea after Benjamin Sesko signed his contract extension with RB Leipzig.
Formerly of Envigado (Colombia) and Chicago Fire, Duran emerged through the ranks as a winger before converting to a complete forward due to his physical capabilities and body archetype in senior football.
Now playing for Aston Villa, Duran has scored eight goals in 37 games in all competitions, and the sporting directors/scouts at Chelsea believe he can take another leap forward when out of the Ollie Watkins shadow… but why is this? Let’s take a look.
Duran Qualities:
Jhon Duran has a lot of raw striker capabilities which are admired, the main one being his pure ball striking technique on that left foot. His ability to shift the ball and create half a yard for himself, mixed with the fast shooting motion he possesses (whilst his technique does not suffer due to the speed of motion) is a recipe for success amongst forwards.
He possesses the goal scoring assets of a top striker, manufacturing his own shooting angles, having such trust in his technique that he often composes himself, takes a look up and has the extra half a second to pick his shot, has the pure ball striking ability and also possesses physical traits built for the Premier League.
Speaking of his physical traits, the 6ft 1 striker has a very compact/dense body composition, defenders bounce off of him, and he often uses this to initiate contact and play through it with momentum, as opposed to avoiding it.
Part of this is his ability to utilise the “stiff arm”, extending one forearm into/across an opposition player’s body to initiate that contact and remain in control.
From this position, Duran can gain the advantage to either roll his man using his strength, or burst away at speed (another asset of his).
Something he would add to this Chelsea squad that is currently lacking in the makeup of the assembly of players is that physical prowess profile, with added aerial ability and box dominance.
Duran has the tendency to over extend or miss time his leap when attacking aerial balls into the box, however his athletic ability often still allows him to manipulate his body and get something on the ball, even when miss timing a jump.
With the body archetype and athletic qualities the Colombian has, it is safe to assume the timing issues and understanding in the box will come with further reps in that position, in a structured system around him, whilst the raw assets he already possesses are strong for this type of player.
One last thing worth mentioning here is Duran’s defensive workrate and fight, which could stem from his lack of minutes whilst deputising Ollie Watkins.
Often when Duran enters the field of play, he has the hunger to chase every ball, get involved physically and do his bit at the defensive end.
As I said, this could be due to frustration being in the shadows, and wanting to prove himself, but this in itself is a good sign, as it shows his hunger and desire to play his part.
Duran Stats:
Now let’s take a look at some of the stats, and it is important to mention these are per 90 statistics, which are therefore skewered as Duran has only played 456 minutes of Premier League football, and 1,097 minutes overall in all competitions this campaign for Aston Villa.
Firstly you have a striker scoring 0.95 goals per 90, taking 3.79 shots per 90 (1.33 of these being on target), and having a Goals – xG of +0.57.
These stats provide insight that Duran is a clinical finisher for the shots that he takes and positions he finds himself in.
He trusts his ability and wants to have a high shot volume to utilise his best assets (that left peg of his) and influence the game by scoring goals.
You then look at his aerial statistics, winning 3.79 per 90, losing 2.27 per 90 and having a 62.5% win rate for aerial battles.
This is exactly what Chelsea lack in aerial prowess and Duran has shown with both the eye test of his physical assets and the stats in the minutes he has accumulated that he has tremendous untapped potential as a box dominant striker both aerially and on the ground.
As mentioned, these stats with more minutes would likely decrease, but combining the stats he posts with the minutes played, and the overall technique and body style he has is definitely an exciting prospect amongst the scouts as someone who could explode and scale upwards.
Duran Negatives:
Now the main negatives noticed when analysis Duran was his instance to forge shots on that left foot, and a lack of variety on his weaker foot.
Now as mentioned within his positives, the mixture of shooting technique, power, shift of foot to find a yard of space (to shoot), and his confidence to do so has masked over the lack of usage of his right foot.
However long term, this could become an issue if variety isn’t sprinkled in and defenders start to play him a certain way.
The other negative I noticed in games was a tendency for odd heavy touches. Again like his other “weakness” mentioned, this was often masked over by his physical prowess and ability to recover the ball/protect the ball if the touch was heavy.
Now this isn’t to say he has a bad touch, because all things considered, his touch is actually quite good and he uses his body well to protect the ball surrounded by multiple players. However this is a skill he could brush up on, and eliminate the tendency for heavier touches.
And whilst this isn’t something I picked up from game coding and analysing games of Duran, it is worth mentioning his attitude and discipline has been reported as an issue in the past, and this would be something to be wary of.
Overall Conclusion:
My overall conclusion on Jhon Duran, is that I see the talent and assets he provides this squad and why the scouts/data team have identified him.
The risks are there as he is unproven, young (like a lot of the squad), and would likely not come cheap.
I would be very open to this signing, as I believe it addresses weaknesses within the squad DNA, adding aspects I want to see added, and I do believe his skillset is very up-scalable.
The main drawback for me is the price tag, £40m would be too much and this needs to be reduced and negotiated correctly.
By empowering Jackson as the number one striker option, after a deserving first season at the club, but also adding a young and hungry different profile to the squad, and challenging them to take strides and take their chances to earn that spot, it would provide a strong level of competition (alongside Nkunku as a forward option), and give Maresca a more complete tool kit to work with, when looking to break down different defensive coverages.
