When UEFA drew Chelsea against Lille for the second time in a calamitous day, there was collective uproar on social media. Out of all the possible teams Chelsea could have been drawn against, including Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, Lille was-and-is the ‘easiest’ team. Or are they?
Examine Chelsea’s defeats in the 21/22 season, or even the year prior under Thomas Tuchel, and you should find a clear pattern. The 3-2 vs West Ham, the 1-0 away at Juventus, or even the 0-1 away vs Arsenal; Chelsea are more vulnerable to counter attacking teams employing a rigid deep block.
Though Lille may be struggling this season; should Chelsea fans relish the prospect of facing a defence that kept 21 league clean sheets last season, the most in Europe’s big five leagues, and one that hasn’t changed drastically in personnel?
Are they playing that badly?
Even the idea that Lille are struggling this season is a little skewed. Yes, they have lost seven games in the league this season; but they have only lost two since November 1st. One of those losses came against PSG, where they lost 5-1, but largely down to goalkeeping errors from Ivo Grbic.
Grbic has been brought in on loan from Atletico Madrid to replace Mike Maignan, who has gone on to impose himself as one of Europe’s best keepers at Milan. The 26-year-old Croatian hasn’t usually been a calamity between the sticks, but that performance vs PSG did emphasise that Lille’s drop off has partly been down to a downgrade in goal, as well as a drop in momentum elsewhere.
Infact since November 1st Lille have played 16 games across the league and Champions League, scored 22 goals, and conceded 19. If it wasn’t for that five-goal drubbing, Lille would be averaging out at less than a goal conceded per-90 in their recent time frame. The manager, Jocelyn Gourvennec, has managed to turn around a horrible start to season.
Of course, there are a lot of ifs and buts here. There’s no escaping the fact that they go into this tie against Chelsea as debutants in the round of 16, bouncing around between 9th and 11th in the league, and undoubted underdogs. They are only a handful of points away from 3rd place in Ligue 1’s ultra-tight race for the European spaces, but Chelsea should win this. Although, should Lille turn up and put a performance in, as they have so far in the Champions League, this could pose an issue for Thomas Tuchel’s blunt attack.
Why they pose an issue to Chelsea?
In 38-year-old Jose Fonte and 22-year-old Sven Botman, Lille have a defensive rearguard that can wheel up the drawbridge to goal. Fonte, formally of Southampton, has taken tremendous care of his body. He was never blessed with pace, but he hasn’t lost much either as he ages towards his 40s. He has great defensive awareness, and that’s shown in fact that he is in the top 30 players in France for completed interceptions this season. He’s also started every league game.
Botman meanwhile, is a player Chelsea forwards should hardly bother trying to dribble past. He holds a mighty 65.31% success rate in one-vs-one situations according to Sofascore, a number which is surpassed by only 10 defenders in France. At 6ft 4 and more speedy & agile than given credit for, he can be a very hard man to get past.
These two have helped protect Lille in ways Chelsea would likely attack them. Just Marseille have seen less teams complete crosses into their own box this season. Lille sit in a strong place than PSG in terms of opposition carries-into-the-box against, having their box penetrated around 3.6 times p-90.
The battleship may be leakier than last season, but Lille still know how to protect their penalty box. In midfield too they have the physicality to match up against Chelsea. On paper, they usually deploy a 4-4-2 with two central midfielders, but against Chelsea it’s likely we will see Renato Sanches adopting the ‘right midfield’. He will play to add an extra bundle of energy to the centre, and if Chelsea catch Renato Sanches on a good day then they will have their work cut out. Sanches can disrupt midfields like Ngolo Kante, and his exceptional quality makes him highly press resistant. He’s only been on the losing side three times all season.
With Benjamin Andre and Amadou Onana infront of the backline too, Chelsea will need to be at their sharpest & quickest to unlock this defence. Lille could make this a very gritty game.
The man Chelsea should watch out for?
Chelsea still should swipe Lille aside. They are far superior in quality in every position on the pitch…besides the striker position.
Even as a tough defensive team, Lille wouldn’t be a giant issue. There’s two legs in the Champions League, meaning at least 180 minutes for Chelsea to score. However, what’s kept Lille in the fight in Europe this season hasn’t been the defence, but their attack. They’re creating more in non-penalty expected goals per 90 (Measure of the quality of chance created) than Monaco this season. Burak Yilmaz may have missed some guilt-edge chances, but his strike partner Jonathan David would get into Chelsea’s team on current form.
Of course, on a more detailed level, David would probably face the same struggles as Lukaku this season. Most of his 12 open-play goals across the league and UCL have come in counter attacking situations, not with his back to goal. Lille do hold less than 50% of the ball on average after all.
What matters though is the Canadian 22-year-old is running red-hot. Reliable on his weaker left foot, David is one of Europe’s top scorers this season, and his agent has outright said that this will be his last season with Lille. This is a youngster fighting every game to impress.
Even beyond his speed in behind and clinical finishing (David is converting 26% of his league shots into goals, a stronger conversion rate than Robert Lewandowski in 21/22), David provides control in counter attacking situations. He times his passes to teammates well, and it means when Lille counter attack, there’s more pressure on cutting the attack out than simply slowing it down.
Predictions?
With everything said, it still a large gamble to say Lille will come out of this tie on top. Especially if Chelsea take the lead, because then Lille will have to come forward and attack.
Still, there is clear foundations here for an upset. RB Salzburg proved that you can take on a UCL giant and stop them playing their game. This one though depends on the form of Chelsea’s attack. If Lukaku and co again provide as much cutting edge as a rubber sword, then Chelsea are in big trouble. Should even a moment of individual quality arise though, Chelsea should win this tie.
