Even with resurgence of Kepa Arrizabalaga between the sticks at Chelsea it would be hard to describe the goalkeeping situation at the club as ‘stable’
The ticking time bomb that was Edouard Mendy’s overperformance in shot-stopping and underperformance with the ball at his feet detonated quickly when Graham Potter arrived at the club, and immediately pivoted to reinvigorating Kepa.
Yet this is a situation the fans have been in before. Kepa’s flaws are well known and even more scrutinised and it would be dangerous to rely on the 28-year-old going forward in Chelsea’s project, even with an encouraging turnaround.
Should Graham Potter and Todd Boehly be targeting the goalkeeper department, they will want to be aiming for young keepers who are comfortable with the ball at their feet. Here’s five of the best options potentially within their grasp.
Warning: PSXG, or post shot expected goals, will be a feature throughout this piece, is defined by Opta as a valuation of a shot ‘based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save it’.
For example, a shot worth 0.93 PSXG, has a 93% chance of beating the goalkeeper according to the stats. That’s measured both on the place the shot originated, and where it ended up i.e. the top corner.
Through this piece, you will see the phrase “PSXG+/-”. This refers to the total PSXG a goalkeeper has faced throughout a season, minus their goals conceded, not including penalties.
I know it sounds complicated, but it’s pretty simple: Let’s use Mendy as an example.
The Senegalese keeper was expected to concede 28.4 goals last season according to the PSXG value of the shots he faced.
He actually conceded 30 non-penalty goals. So 28.4 minus 30 goals against, = -1.6. Therefore, Mendy conceded 1.6 goals MORE than expected, which shows he had a ‘bad’ shot-stopping year across 21/22 in the Premier League.
David Raya – Brentford FC
Since Brentford were promoted to the Premier League in 2021, Chelsea have managed just one goal in two games when Spanish keeper David Raya has started against them.
The 27-year-old was briefly sidelined last season with a knee injury, which coincided with the club’s worst run of form in the league under Thomas Frank. The Bees conceded 29 goals in 14 games during the winter period of last season with Raya sidelined, compared to 27 conceded in the 24 games he did play that season.
Recently his shot-stopping has seen a slight dip, with FBREF data suggesting the Barca-born keeper has been conceding 0.11 goals more p90 than PSXG suggests.
Fortunately for Brentford, what Raya brings in possession means they’ve continued to play well.
No goalkeeper in the Premier League has completed more than Raya’s 129 ‘launched’ passes (ones to travel more than 40 yards) this season, and his 40.2% completion rate means only Alisson, Łukasz Fabiański and Vincente Guaita are more accurate.
There’s more dimensions to Raya’s sweeping, and this willingness to go long is something that’s come into Raya’s armoury after years of comfortable short passes from the back. He’s often been guilty of being a little too casual, as long-time Brentford fans can attest to.
With the mistakes largely ironed out of his game, Raya’s time for a new project looks fast approaching. His contract in West London runs out in 2024.
Yet to turn 28 until September 2023, Raya is at a good age for a goalkeeper and likely has five years still to go at the top level. It’s an option that’s a little under the radar, but one well worth considering.
Alban Lafont – Nantes
All FIFA and Football Manager fans will have been aware of the name Alban Lafont for a number of years now, the Burkina Faso-born goalkeeper touted for success since his senior debut in 2015.
He became the youngest goalkeeper in the history of Ligue 1 when he started for Toulouse against Nice, still aged 16, and since then he has made 274 career appearances. Believe it or not, the Nantes keeper is still yet to turn 24-years-old.
The French U21 international has also enjoyed two years of consistently good performances at Nantes, as last season just eight keepers in France saved a higher proportion of shots faced than Lafont’s 72.6%.
In terms of shot stopping, Lafont has also built up a portfolio of sharp stops that showcase quick reactions and good reach. Standing at 6ft 4, he has four inches on Raya and three on incumbent Chelsea keeper Kepa. Last season too, Lafont saved 5.2 goals more than expected, the second best mark in the PSXG+/- department in France.
While Nantes went on to win the Coupe de France in 2022 and will face Juventus in the Europa League in 2023, Antoine Kombouaré’s style of play doesn’t lend itself to sweeper keepers.
Instead, Lafont has been encouraged to hit long balls forward to quickly launch attacks. It’s not clear how truly comfortable he is with the ball at his feet, but the range of passing is there.
Some may not be convinced, but the French view Lafont as a top goalkeeper, even L’Equipe. When he helped Nantes beat PSG 3-1 in February of this year, facing nine shots on target, he became the third keeper in history to be given a 10/10 rating by the prestigious organisation.
Ilan Meslier – Leeds United
Another promising young French goalkeeper operating closer to home is Ilan Meslier of Leeds United who would be difficult to get out of Yorkshire, but might be a worthwhile investment.
Also capped by the French U21s, the 22-year-old has made 104 appearances for Leeds since moving from Lorient in 2019. He had spent a decade in Brittany, but it took just one season of senior football to convince Marcelo Bielsa to take on the Frenchman.
A large stipulation for Bielsa’s approval was the ability to play an active role in build up play, something that Graham Potter will also be basing his search on evidenced by the dropping of Mendy.
In that respect, Meslier stands out even against most Premier League goalkeepers. Leeds have struggled over the past 18 months, but in their 20/21 return to the Premier League, Meslier was completing 81% of his 39.1 passes p90.
This is a wild number considering that Kepa, at a far more possession dominant team, has never attempted more than 37.8 passes p90 in his career on record.
Of course, where the Leeds keeper falls down dramatically is in his shot stopping. Last campaign, there wasn’t a keeper in the entire Premier League who came close to matching what Meslier did in relation to PSXG+/-.
The Frenchman let in 16.2 goals more than what was expected. If we’re maintaining the Kepa comparison, even in his infamous 19/20 season, the Spaniard’s number stood at just -11.3.
This shouldn’t write Meslier off as a potential target though as he is still a young prospect. Goalkeeping is a mentality game as much as it is based on technique, with keepers like Ramsdale proving form can be turned around by psychological work.
It just means Todd Boehly & co should make sure they know absolutely everything they can before sanctioning a transfer.
Justin Bijlow – Feyenoord
From a household name to a relative unknown, Dutch keeper Justin Bijlow has quietly been building a solid reputation for himself in the Eredivisie and is overdue a big move.
That’s no slight on the size of his current club, Feyenoord, as some fans who know his name may have seen him between the sticks in the Europa Conference League final against Roma last season.
On the run to the final of the inaugural competition the 24-year-old conceded six goals in six games, before unfortunately being ruled out for most of the knockout stage through foot surgery. That shouldn’t take away from his performances though, ones good enough to convince the stern Louis van Gaal to call him up for the World Cup.
That may also be down to his record in 22/23, conceding 13 goals in 14 games and helping Feyenoord stand as the current unlikely leaders of the Eredivisie.
Bijlow isn’t just a name that’s come to the fore in recent months though, he has in fact been hyped up as the potential solution to a perennial problem in goal for the Netherlands since he broke through in 2016. Even in 2021, Liverpool’s goalkeeping coach admitted to monitoring him.
There have been some errors in Bijlow’s goalkeeping rise, including a misjudgment of a free kick against Vitesse last season leading to the winning goal in a costly defeat for Feyenoord. His penalty record too is awful, last saving one in the league in 2018 while conceding 13.
What’s important though is that Bijlow is a more consistent shot stopper now, saving more than PSXG would predict, and the keeper has been developed with sweeper-keeping in mind. He is a player Chelsea should join Liverpool in paying attention to, if they haven’t already.
Robert Sánchez – Brighton
Finally, to finish off my list is Robert Sánchez who is probably the first choice for the fans, the coaches and the hierarchy.
Since returning from loan at Rochdale in 2020, the 25-year-old has been the undisputed number one for Brighton and was crucial to Graham Potter’s rise with The Seagulls. Before him was Matthew Ryan who, in his final season as first choice, averaged 0.68 defensive actions outside of the box p90.
With Sánchez, that number rose to around 0.99 p90 across the last two full seasons, and has only seen a dip this year when Roberto de Zerbi arrived at the club and led a small transition for Brighton.
It’s a bit surprising to learn that Sánchez doesn’t actually perform well in the PSXG+/- test, conceding 4.2 goals more than expected since August 2020. Perhaps that is indicative of an inflated reputation, but it’s hard to disagree with the people who do rate him so highly.
Potter himself called “monster” in terms of physicality and especially praised how the Spaniard claims crosses, Pep Guardiola described him as a ‘good goalkeeper’ , while Spain coach Luis Enrique decided to choose actions over words.
Sánchez may have made just international appearances since he was first called up in March 2021, as he has been confined to the bench, but he’s been chosen consistently over Manchester United’s David de Gea.
The only thing that looks to stand in the way of a move to the Blues looks to be Brighton. De Zerbi has got off to a superb start and the trajectory of the seaside club doesn’t look to have stagnated as some feared after Potter’s departure.
However, Sánchez’s contract runs for just over two and a half years, meaning it’s getting close to crunch time. Brighton will be looking to renegotiate that deal or failing that, sell for a large fee.
