“Kepa is a talent we have admired for a long time. We are extremely excited” – if Marina Granovskaia got anything wrong as commander-in-chief of Chelsea, it was the world record fee for Kepa Arrizabalaga.
Just under four years on from the Spaniard’s arrival, Kepa looks to finally be leaving Stamford Bridge after spending the last two years effectively being an expensive spare part. Chelsea are now in the hunt for a keen, talented understudy to Edouard Mendy and the Senegalese could use with a genuine push.
Goalkeeping is a position that, nowadays, we can use data to pinpoint the key qualities as the website, FBREF, can point us in the right direction.
Looking for a good shot stopper? Look for goalkeepers who save above their post-shot expected-goals p90 rating, a stat that measures how likely a keeper is to save a shot.
Looking for a sweeper keeper? Pinpoint defensive actions outside of the box p90 (OPAp90).
Looking for a commanding keeper (i.e. not David De Gea)? See who has a high stopping-rate for crosses into the penalty area.
Of course, using data in football tells less than half the story, and we should apply measures like game time, shots faced, the team the player is on when looking for the best keepers. That’s all before watching them in real life. Using those key qualities though, several keepers under the age of 28 have been identified as promising..
The keepers above also played a minimum of ten ‘90s’.
Some keepers did rank high but were expelled in our final shortlist, like Luis Maximiano from Granada who was one of the outstanding goalkeepers last year, but was recently snapped up by Lazio. Other keepers who are definitely not going to play backup, like Mike Maignan of AC Milan, were left out too.
Now, we can go through our shortlist and see who makes the most sense for Chelsea.
Robert Sanchez :
Brighton’s Robert Sanchez is the only keeper here to be operating full-time inside of the Premier League, meaning he would likely come with a price premium..
The 24-year-old has caught the eye of pundits since becoming a first-team-starter in 2020, as Graham Potter has previously hailed him a “monster”. He further told the Argus in 2021: “In terms of attributes as a goalkeeper, he has got everything to be a top goalkeeper.”
The data backs up Potter, as by PSXG Sanchez has saved six goals more than expected in the Premier League since stepping up. For context, in the same timeframe, Mendy has actually conceded 0.3 goals more than he was expected to.
Sanchez also ticks the boxes for commanding his box, as just six keepers in all of Europe last season had a higher stop percentage against crosses into their own box than Sanchez.
The issue is, the keeper has a contract running until 2025 and would most likely want to command a starting spot, even with the lure of challenging Edouard Mendy.
Alexander Nübel :
Technically, German goalkeeper Alexander Nübel is contracted on loan to AS Monaco from Bayern Munich, with the French side eager to sign their new #1.
After starting the 21/22 season in blunderous fashion and failing to keep a clean sheet until his ninth Ligue 1 game, it seemed the former Schalke prodigy fitted in nowhere. His reflexes were later and after a horrible season where Nübel played just four Bundesliga games at Bayern it seemed his career was in a tricky spot.
The 25-year-old turned it around though, ending the season with 6.5 goals saved over what was expected of him by the stats. He may have a poor crossing stopped-rate of 3.6%, less than halve of Mendy, but at 6ft 4 he has the build to grow in that department.
When he arrived in Munich, Nübel was touted to be the successor to Manuel Neuer as the legendary keeper aged into his late thirties. The up-and-comer even acknowledged that while Neuer is around he has ‘no chance’ of ousting him, in an interview with Sport1 in November.
With Germany’s number one currently 36 and maintaining top performances, Nübel could be tempted away, and Bayern’s recent willingness to let go of talent in Chris Richards and Marc Roca suggests this keeper is up for grabs in 2023.
Álex Remiro :
Our second Spainard on our list is Real Sociedad’s Álex Remiro and while the 26-year-old is less well known do not look down upon his stature; after all, only Alisson and Ederson kept more clean sheets last season.
The former Atletico Bilbao goalkeeper has been with Socedad since 2019 and similar to Rulli, is comfortable with the ball at his feet. He was protected by a defence that conceded less shots than Real Madrid last season, but do not let that take away from his goalkeeping ability.
One note of worry might be in his shot stopping stats, as though he saved 2.6 goals more than expected to last season, it was his first season in blue and white colours where he finished with positive numbers at the end of the season.
He also extended his contract last month until 2027, featuring a wafty €70m release clause. Though practically the ideal contender for Chelsea, he may have just been priced out of a move.
Guglielmo Vicario :
Making his loan permanent at Italian side Empoli from Cagliari this summer is 25-year-old Italian Guglielmo Vicario, but he’s certainly not off the market.
Empoli’s record sale is Ismaël Bennacer when he was sold for £15m in 2019 to AC Milan, and Chelsea could explore a loan-to-buy option with the keeper. It’s a deal that should at least be looked into, considering Vicario saved 3.5 goals more than expected last season and touched the ball 10 times more p90 than Mendy.
That being said, Vicario wasn’t often travelling outside his own 18-yard-box as he averaged 0.53 OPA p90. Infairness, while that is far off Ederson’s 0.92 p90, it’s only 0.02 away from Mendy.
Vicario then, with at least a decade of his top years as a goalkeeper, could come in and at the very least be a gentle push to Mendy to up his game. When called upon, the Italian could provide similar or even better output than the Senegalese.
Álvaro Fernández :
Our last entry and our second in the Premier League is Huesca’s Álvaro Fernández, the understudy last season to David Raya at Brentford on loan at the club.
In a similar situation to Emi Martinez at Arsenal in 2019/20, when Bernd Leno got injured, Fernández found game time after Raya was ruled out for 100 days mid-season. The 24-year-old looked to have had a poor time in goal as he conceded 24 goals in just 12 Premier League games.
However, the data from FBREF actually suggests that Fernandez was more of a victim from Brentford’s defending than any bad goalkeeping. He saved at 0.23 goals over his PSXG p90, which to translate to a full season, would have seen him save 8.7 goals more than expected. He’s in the top 3% in all of Europe for that statistics.
What did let him down last season and what seems to be the main reason behind Brighton not pursuing a permanent move thus far, was the other areas of his game letting him down. His distribution was criticised by manager Thomas Frank, even if he acknowledged that his shot stopping in one-vs-ones was “unbelievably good.”
Still, Álvaro Fernández doesn’t turn 25-years-old until April 2023. There’s plenty of time for the keeper to improve on the other facets of his game and with elite shot-stopping, he could be the perfect understudy to Edouard Mendy.
Of course, there are plenty of goalkeepers out there and Chelsea may opt for the “safe” options of Ben Foster or Alex Mccarthy, but those mentioned above would tick multiple boxes for Chelsea’s next NO.2.
